Webinar on ERTAC EGU Forecasting Tool - Model Projection Results for 2017 - Documentation

The Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) is a collaborative effort to improve emission inventories among the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Lake Michigan area states; other member states; industry representatives; and multi-jurisdictional planning organization (MJO) representatives.

ERTAC has developed the EGU Forecast Tool which can be used to grow base year hourly EGU air emissions inventories into future projection years hourly EGU air emissions inventories for air quality impact assessment on both an annual and episodic peak basis. The tool uses base year hourly USEPA Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) data, fuel specific growth rates, and other information to estimate future emissions. The input files used by the tool are described below with links to the files used for the runs.

Send any questions or comments regarding the EGU Forecast Tool to jmcdill@marama.org.

Reference Runs

The ERTAC EGU committee maintains and distributes reference runs for the continental United States (CONUS). Provided here are input and output files with the exception of the base year hourly CAMD data file for 2011. That large file is available upon request. Summary output files are also provided below. The enhanced summary files provide NOx and SO₂ criteria pollutant data for annual and ozone season time periods. Hourly future year data files for these runs are available upon request due to their large size. In addition there is a file documenting the development of each run. Input files are as follows:

Unit Availability File (UAF) – This file is a table of base year unit specific information derived from CAMD NEEDS database, state input, Energy Information Agency (EIA) Form 860, and NERC data. States have added information on planned new units and retirements, fuel switches, and other changes.

Control File – A table of future unit-specific changes and the effect on the unit emissions. This information has been provided by state air agency staff.

Season Control File – A table of future unit-specific emission factors that vary in the future year. These data originate from state-provided comments and are especially helpful in characterizing future year emission rates from seasonal control devices.

Growth File – A table of growth factors developed from the EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and NERC estimates and other information.

Input Variables File – A table of variables used in the modeling run.

State File – A table of state level emissions caps or budgets in the future years.

Group File – A table of emissions caps or budgets applicable to multiple states in future years.

nonCAMD Hourly File – This file provides updates to the CAMD hourly 2011 BY data to correct hourly reported values.

CONUS 16.0 – Base Year 2016 Projected to 2020, 2023, 2028

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 16.0

Input Files

UAF Files for All Years 2016, 2020, 2023, 2028
Control Files for All Years 2016, 2020, 2023, 2028

Seasonal Control Files for All Projection Years 2020, 2023, 2028

Group Total Files for All Projection Years 2020, 2023, 2028
State Total Files for All Projection Years 2020, 2023, 2028
Growth Files for All Years 2016, 2020, 2023, 2028
Input Variable Files for All Years 2016, 2020, 2023, 2028

Output Files

Criteria Pollutants for 2016
Annual FF10 Files for 2016

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2020, 2023, 2028
Annual FF10 Files for 2020, 2023, 2028

Related Files for split ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.7

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years

Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years

Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030
Demand Transfer Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

CO₂ for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

CONUS 2.6 – Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, and 2030

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.6

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years

Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years

Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

CO₂ for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028, 2030

CONUS 2.5 L2 – Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017 and 2023

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.5 L2

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years

Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years

Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2023
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2023

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2023
CO₂ for 2017, 2023

CONUS 2.5 – Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028 and 2030

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.5

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years
Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years
Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028, 2030
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028, 2030

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028, 2030
CO₂ for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028, 2030

CONUS 2.4 – Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2028

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.4

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years
Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years
Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028
CO₂ for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028

CONUS 2.3 – Base Year 2011 Projected to 2018 and 2028

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.3

201503 Stakeholder Outreach Slides
MATS SO2 Outstanding Units

Input Files

UAF Files for 2018, 2028
Control Files for 2018, 2028
Seasonal Control Files for 2018, 2028
Growth Files for 2018, 2028
Input Variable Files for 2018, 2028