The MARAMA V3 2007 inventory was projected to 2025 for PM2.5 nonattainment counties in MANE-VU for use by states in preporation of attainment demonstrations. This is a future base case in that no controls are included beyond what is required by existing regulations. No NIF or ORL files have been developed for the 2025 inventory projection.
Two future year base inventories, 2017 and 2020, were prepared based on the 2007 base year. To select the base future year inventories select the files identified as “Existing Conditions”
In addition a scenario was prepared that accounted for the emissions reductions due to the application to all states in the region except Virginia of nine control strategies developed by the OTC. To select this scenario select the files identified as “What-if controls”.
Ultimately EGU emissions will be projected using the ERTAC Model.
However, for the purposes of the OTC screening modeling platform, 2020 EGU emissions have been predicted in a variety of ways as follows:
• For NOX and SO2: The 2007 actual state emissions are compared with the 2014 CSAPR caps, where applicable. The percent reduction required to achieve that cap is applied to every EGU source in the state.
• PM2.5: 2007 emissions are unchanged out to 2020.
• VOC: The USEPA IPM modeling used to support the CSAPR rule development predicts a nationwide average 24% increase in VOC emissions from the EGU sector. This increase was applied to 2007 emissions.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) is developing a model to predict growth in emissions from electrical generating units (EGU) that will be used for the SIP quality future projection. This is a collaborative effort among the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Lake Michigan area states, industry representatives, and regional planning organization (RPO) representatives. The results from this alternative methodology should be easy to compare to CAMD unit emissions data, easy to understand, well-documented, and flexible. The inventories must account for fuel-specific generation trends and constraints for at least a 20 year projection period. Unit operations may not be grown past the installed capacity limits, and operational reserve requirements must be respected on a regional basis. The results must be robust enough to enable emission reduction strategy policy assessments.
The model software is complete and is being tested by the ERTAC group. As a result of this review, input files may be adjusted and minor improvements to the model functionality may be made. It is expected that results will be presented to state staff, the ERTAC workgroup and USEPA staff in Fall 2012.