The Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) is a collaborative effort to improve emission inventories among the Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Lake Michigan area states; other member states; industry representatives; and multi-jurisdictional  planning organization (MJO) representatives.

ERTAC has developed the EGU Forecast Tool which can be used to grow base year hourly EGU air emissions inventories into future projection years hourly EGU air emissions inventories for air quality impact assessment on both an annual and episodic peak basis. The tool uses base year hourly USEPA Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) data, fuel specific growth rates, and other information to estimate future emissions.   The input files used by the tool are described below with links to the files used for the runs.

Send any questions or comments regarding the EGU Forecast Tool to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

 

Reference Runs 

The ERTAC EGU committee maintains and distributes reference runs for the continental United States (CONUS).  Provided here are input and output files with the exception of the base year hourly CAMD data file for 2011.  That large file is available upon request.  Summary output files are also provided below.  The enhanced summary files provide NOx and SO2 criteria pollutant data for annual and ozone season time periods.  The CO2 summary files provide CO2 estimations for the future year.  Hourly future year data files for these runs are available upon request due to their large size.  In addition there is a file documenting the development of each run.  Input files are as follows:

Unit Availability File (UAF) – This file is a table of base year unit specific information derived from CAMD NEEDS database, state input, Energy Information Agency (EIA) Form 860, and NERC data.  States have added information on planned new units and retirements, fuel switches, and other changes.

Control File – A table of future unit-specific changes and the effect on the unit emissions.  This information has been provided by state air agency staff.

Season Control File – A table of future unit-specific emission factors that vary in the future year.  These data originate from state-provided comments and are especially helpful in characterizing future year emission rates from seasonal control devices. 

Growth File – A table of growth factors developed from the EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) and NERC estimates and other information.

Input Variables File – A table of variables used in the modeling run. 

State File – A table of state level emissions caps or budgets in the future years.

Group File – A table of emissions caps or budgets applicable to multiple states in future years.

nonCAMD Hourly File – This file provides updates to the CAMD hourly 2011 BY data to correct hourly reported values.

 

 

CONUS 2.5 L2 - Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017 and 2023

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.5 L2

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years

Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years

Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files  All Projection Years
Growth Files for 20172023
Input Variable Files for 20172023

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 20172023
CO2 for 20172023

 
CONUS 2.5 - Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2028 and 2030

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.5

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years
Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years
Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files  All Projection Years
Growth Files for 201720182019, 202120232028, 2030
Input Variable Files for 201720182019, 202120232028, 2030

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 201720182019, 202120232028, 2030
CO2 for 201720182019, 202120232028, 2030

 

CONUS 2.4 - Base Year 2011 Projected to 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2028

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.4

Input Files

UAF Files for All Projection Years
Control Files for All Projection Years
Seasonal Control Files All Projection Years
Group Total Files All Projection Years
State Total Files  All Projection Years
Growth Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028
Input Variable Files for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028
CO2 for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2023, 2028

 

CONUS 2.3 - Base Year 2011 Projected to 2018 and 2028

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 2.3

201503 Stakeholder Outreach Slides   
MATS SO2 Outstanding Units

Input Files

UAF Files for 2018, 2028 
Control Files for 2018, 2028
Seasonal Control Files for 2018, 2028
Growth Files for 2018, 2028
Input Variable Files for  2018, 2028

Projections

Criteria Pollutants for 2018, 2028

Scenario Analysis

Mercury and Air Toxics (MATS)

High and Low Gas Penetration

 

CONUS 1.7wa - Base Year 2007 Projected to 2018 and 2020

Run Documentation of ERTAC EGU CONUS 1.7

Inputs

UAF Files for 2018 & 2020
Control Files for 2018 & 2020
Growth Files for 2018 & 2020
Input Variable Files for 2018 & 2020 

Projections

2018, 2020

ERTAC EGU Forecast Tool documentation

All files are .pdf files, unless otherwise noted.

Design Document

Flowchart (updated 5/13/2013)

Technical Support Document

Appendix A – Narrative Outline of Decision Rules

Appendix B – Reporting Functions

Appendix C – ERTAC EGU 20102 v 1.01 Source Code (ZIP file)

Appendix D – Data Dictionary  (.xlsx file)

Appendix E – SEMAP Presentation

Appendix F – EGU Growth Model Improvements

Appendix G – EGU Model Emails  (ZIP file)

 

Presentations

August 2014 Northeast States Stakeholder Outreach

ERTAC EGU Stakeholder Outreach

June 2014 ERTAC/CAMD Meeting

Bill M-ERTAC/IPM Fuel Mix

George A-Air Quality Modeling and Emissions

Michael C-Power Plant Emission Trends     

Elyse-Emission Rates

Meg-NEEDS Retirements

Serpil A-Hourly Characteristics 

June 2013 Webinar Files

Introduction to ERTAC Process & Model Overview-- Full slide -- 2 slides per page

Explanation of Model Flow Chart -- Full slide -- 2 slides per page -- Flowchart (updated 5/15/2013)

Explanation of Data & Data Sources  -- Full slide -- 2 slides per page

Installing the Software -- Full slide -- 2 slides per page

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